Tirsense 0-5 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
12.23
Draw
20%
7.13
Away OUR CALL
60%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.98
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
7.12
2-3 Goals
37%
2.21
4-5 Goals
30%
2.36
6+ Goals
10%
4.29
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.12 — our 23% vs market 9.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Benfica win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
5%
+15.2pp
20%
Draw
10%
+9.6pp
60%
Away Win
85%
-24.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+16.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-16.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tirsense EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 91%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.40/0.68
+41% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -2%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
264 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 453 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.8
Crosses 25.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tirsense
0-5
AWAY Benfica
0.17 xG 1.34
35% Ball Possession 65%
3 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
242 Passes 504
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 31
6 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tirsense vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica cruised past Tirsense 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Tirsense had 35% of the ball to Benfica's 65%, shots finished 3-12, expected goals 0.17 to 1.34.

What was the final score of Tirsense vs Benfica?

Tirsense 0-5 Benfica in the Portugal - Cup on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tirsense vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Tirsense 20%, draw 20%, Benfica 60%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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