America Mineiro 3-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 9 May 2024

📅09/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.49
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-9.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
1.57/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.13
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
390 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
23.8 Crosses 15.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.14 xG 0.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
367 Passes 267
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.10.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.07.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
20.09.2017 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
10.06.2017 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
20.09.2014 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
17.05.2014 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 2-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
3-1
AWAY Vila Nova
2.24 xG 0.37
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
376 Passes 309
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro beat Vila Nova 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 54% of the ball to Vila Nova's 46%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.24 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for America Mineiro and 0.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?

America Mineiro 3-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 53%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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