Smouha 1-2 Masr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 9 May 2024

Smouha
1-2 HT 0-1
Masr
📅09/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
31%
2.7
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.03
No
64%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.3
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
13%
5.32
6+ Goals
6%
33.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.3 — our 37% vs market 36.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
24%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.4pp
31%
Draw
34%
-2.4pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.2pp
64%
BTTS No
55%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smouha EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Masr EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.36/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.90
+14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +125%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 72%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
16.6 Crosses 14.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smouha
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Masr
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.73 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
248 Passes 363
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Masr 1-1 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
31.10.2020 Smouha Smouha 2-0 HT 2-0 Masr MSR
08.02.2020 Masr 0-1 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smouha
1-2
AWAY Masr
1.73 xG 1.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
351 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Smouha vs Masr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Masr squeezed past Smouha 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Masr found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Smouha had 55% of the ball to Masr's 45%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.73 to 1.74.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Smouha had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Smouha and 0.33 for Masr.

What was the final score of Smouha vs Masr?

Smouha 1-2 Masr in the Egypt - Premier League on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smouha vs Masr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smouha win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Smouha 37%, draw 31%, Masr 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Smouha) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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