Stromsgodset 3-4 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 9 May 2024

Stromsgodset
3-4 HT 2-3
Lilleström
📅09/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Norway - NM Cup – 2024

Stromsgodset vs Lilleström Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.23
Over 2.5
67%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.5
No
33%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
4.6
2-3 Goals
33%
1.9
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
34%
2.87
6+ Goals
17%
8.19
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.87 — our 34% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.02
1/2
11%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
19%
5.2
X/2
14%
6.43
X/X
7%
5.5
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
9%
4.06
2/X
10%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.9pp
33%
Under 2.5
41%
-8.5pp
67%
Over 2.5
59%
+8.5pp
67%
BTTS Yes
62%
+4.3pp
33%
BTTS No
38%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stromsgodset v Lilleström — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stromsgodset EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 36%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.59/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.83/2.00
+47% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +122% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Stromsgodset vs Lilleström Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stromsgodset
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Lilleström
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.48 xG 2.08
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
278 Passes 334
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 1-2 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
19.04.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 4-3 HT 2-2 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
10.09.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 HT 2-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
26.06.2022 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
27.11.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 4-1 HT 3-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
16.05.2021 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-1 HT 2-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR

Stromsgodset 3-4 Lilleström — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stromsgodset
3-4
AWAY Lilleström
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 21
7 Shots on Target 15
10 Corners 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stromsgodset vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström squeezed past Stromsgodset 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Stromsgodset at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (67%) came in.

On the day, Stromsgodset had 39% of the ball to Lilleström's 61%, shots finished 14-21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lilleström led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stromsgodset and 2.17 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Stromsgodset vs Lilleström?

Stromsgodset 3-4 Lilleström in the Norway - NM Cup on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stromsgodset vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stromsgodset win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Stromsgodset 44%, draw 23%, Lilleström 34%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stromsgodset) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stromsgodset) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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