Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 9 Jun 2024

📅09/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.42
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 31% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.7pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.23/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.81
-21% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Kagoshima United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 2
02.11.2019 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-1
AWAY Kagoshima United
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama and Kagoshima United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fagiano Okayama at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 50% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 50%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Kagoshima United?

Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J2 League on 09/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 45%, draw 27%, Kagoshima United 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
9 Jun 2024
08:00 Montedio Yamagata vs Oita Trinita Analysis →