İspanya 2-1 Fransa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro, 9 Jul 2024

İspanya
2-1 HT 2-1
Fransa
📅09/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Euro – 2024

İspanya vs Fransa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
36%
2.77
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.54
Over 2.5
36%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.38
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.04
6+ Goals
13%
30.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.38 — our 38% vs market 35.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.81
1/2
5%
39.0
1/X
5%
12.45
X/1
11%
5.41
X/2
5%
6.08
X/X
23%
3.4
2/1
5%
35.5
2/2
16%
4.52
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.2pp
36%
Draw
33%
+3.5pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-3.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
61%
+3.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
39%
-3.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.8pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İspanya v Fransa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fransa EU Bookmakers 34%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.71/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.16
+97% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -99% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
13.0 Crosses 18.0
4.5 Yellow Cards 0.5

İspanya vs Fransa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fransa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.80 xG 1.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
638 Passes 290
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.10.2021 İspanya İspanya 1-2 HT 0-0 Fransa Fransa AVUL
28.03.2017 Fransa Fransa 0-2 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
04.09.2014 Fransa Fransa 1-0 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
26.03.2013 Fransa Fransa 0-1 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya DKE
16.10.2012 İspanya İspanya 1-1 HT 1-0 Fransa Fransa DKE
23.06.2012 İspanya İspanya 2-0 HT 1-0 Fransa Fransa AVR

İspanya 2-1 Fransa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya
2-1
AWAY Fransa
0.75 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
442 Passes 283
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İspanya vs Fransa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya edged past Fransa 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 36% / 27% — and on the day İspanya made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İspanya had 58% of the ball to Fransa's 42%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.75 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, İspanya had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for İspanya and 0.67 for Fransa.

What was the final score of İspanya vs Fransa?

İspanya 2-1 Fransa in the Euro on 09/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya vs Fransa?

Before kick-off our model rated a İspanya win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split İspanya 37%, draw 36%, Fransa 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İspanya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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