Amazonas 1-2 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 9 Jul 2024

📅09/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.52
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.3pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amazonas EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 30%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -6%
1.18/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.05
-61% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
24.0 Crosses 14.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amazonas
1-2
AWAY Vila Nova
0.88 xG 1.46
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
16 Corners 4
373 Passes 231
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 21
45 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Amazonas vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Amazonas 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Vila Nova found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amazonas had 60% of the ball to Vila Nova's 40%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 0.88 to 1.46.

What was the final score of Amazonas vs Vila Nova?

Amazonas 1-2 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 09/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amazonas vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amazonas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Amazonas 40%, draw 30%, Vila Nova 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Amazonas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
9 Jul 2024
02:00 Avai vs Novorizontino Analysis →