Blackburn Rovers 4-2 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 9 Aug 2024

Blackburn Rovers
4-2 HT 1-0
Derby County
📅09/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.17
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.17
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
13%
4.9
X/2
6%
6.29
X/X
9%
4.48
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
16%
4.52
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Blackburn Rovers v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blackburn Rovers EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -36%
1.38/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.41
+2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
16.1 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blackburn Rovers
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Derby County
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.62 xG 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
271 Passes 402
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.03.2022 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 3-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
30.10.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 0-2 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers İNCL
16.04.2021 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 2-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
26.09.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-4 HT 0-3 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers İNCL
08.03.2020 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 2-0 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers İNCL
07.12.2019 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Blackburn Rovers 4-2 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blackburn Rovers
4-2
AWAY Derby County
2.05 xG 1.08
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
346 Passes 356
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Blackburn Rovers saw off Derby County 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Blackburn Rovers as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Blackburn Rovers had 47% of the ball to Derby County's 53%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.05 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Blackburn Rovers had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Blackburn Rovers and 1.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County?

Blackburn Rovers 4-2 Derby County in the England - Championship on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Blackburn Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Blackburn Rovers 46%, draw 26%, Derby County 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Blackburn Rovers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Blackburn Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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