Newtown 4-1 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.32
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.2pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.5pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +1%
1.81/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.45
-7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
393 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
14.11.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
26.08.2023 Newtown Newtown 0-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
30.12.2022 Newtown Newtown 6-1 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
26.12.2022 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
12.11.2022 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-3 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GALWK
10.12.2021 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newtown ran out comfortable winners over Aberystwyth Town 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Newtown as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Newtown and 0.83 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Aberystwyth Town?

Newtown 4-1 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - Premier League on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Newtown 53%, draw 25%, Aberystwyth Town 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newtown), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newtown) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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