Sibenik 2-0 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.5pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sibenik EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
0.89/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.18
-47% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
18.0 Crosses 20.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sibenik
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.68 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 Passes 281
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 3-1 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
17.02.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
14.10.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.08.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
16.04.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 2-1 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.02.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sibenik
2-0
AWAY Slaven Belupo
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Sibenik vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sibenik beat Slaven Belupo 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sibenik as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sibenik had 41% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 59%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sibenik had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sibenik and 0.83 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Sibenik vs Slaven Belupo?

Sibenik 2-0 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sibenik vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sibenik win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sibenik 42%, draw 29%, Slaven Belupo 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sibenik), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sibenik) ✓ Under 2.5
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