Arka Gdynia 2-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
8.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.65
1/2
7%
24.35
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
13%
6.04
X/2
11%
5.87
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
24%
3.51
2/X
5%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.3pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -32%
0.76/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.57
+1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 81%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
16.0 Crosses 22.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arka Gdynia
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
262 Passes 422
30.11.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
29.07.2019 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-0 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
30.06.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-4 HT 0-3 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
07.04.2019 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-3 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
02.11.2018 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-3 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
05.05.2018 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-2 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arka Gdynia
2-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.48 xG 2.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
254 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arka Gdynia vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arka Gdynia squeezed past Pogon Szczecin 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Arka Gdynia had 44% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 56%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.48 to 2.01 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pogon Szczecin.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arka Gdynia and 2.67 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Arka Gdynia vs Pogon Szczecin?

Arka Gdynia 2-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arka Gdynia vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arka Gdynia 34%, draw 24%, Pogon Szczecin 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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