Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Dünya - Emirates Kupası, 9 Aug 2026

Arsenal
2-3 HT 0-2
Borussia Dortmund
📅09/08/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Dünya - Emirates Kupası – 2026

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.45
Draw
33%
4.34
Away
33%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
64%
-31.2pp
33%
Draw
20%
+13.6pp
33%
Away Win
16%
+17.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
368 Passes 382
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
The Meetings
26.11.2014 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
16.09.2014 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
06.11.2013 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
22.10.2013 Arsenal Arsenal 1-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
23.11.2011 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
13.09.2011 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP

Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.07 xG 1.38
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
438 Passes 322
24 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund squeezed past Arsenal 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; Borussia Dortmund found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.07 to 1.38 — on chances, Arsenal could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund in the Dünya - Emirates Kupası on 09/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 33%, draw 33%, Borussia Dortmund 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →