Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
2-0
HT 1-0
Sri Lanka
DKE
0-2
HT 0-1
Türkmenistan
DKE
Sri Lanka edged past Türkmenistan 1-0 in the Asian Cup Qualifiers on 9 Oct 2025. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Sri Lanka had 41% of the ball to Türkmenistan's 59%, shots finished 10-18.
Across their last 2 meetings in our records, Türkmenistan lead the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Sri Lanka and 2.00 for Türkmenistan.
What was the final score of Sri Lanka vs Türkmenistan?
Sri Lanka 1-0 Türkmenistan in the Asian Cup Qualifiers on 09/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sri Lanka vs Türkmenistan?
Before kick-off our model rated an Türkmenistan win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sri Lanka 33%, draw 17%, Türkmenistan 50%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.