Melbourne Victory (K) 2-3 Melbourne City (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 9 Nov 2024

Melbourne Victory (K)
2-3 HT 2-1
Melbourne City (K)
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒06:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Melbourne City (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -53% / -53%
0.91/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.58
-54% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
296 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 80%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
23.0 Crosses 11.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
0.45 xG 1.27
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
209 Passes 459
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
12.12.2019 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
05.01.2019 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
16.11.2018 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 0-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
03.11.2017 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 2-3 Melbourne City (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
2-3
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.79 xG 2.21
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
255 Passes 281
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Melbourne City (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City (K) edged past Melbourne Victory (K) 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 49% of the ball to Melbourne City (K)'s 51%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.79 to 2.21.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Melbourne Victory (K) and 0.40 for Melbourne City (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 2-3 Melbourne City (K) in the Australia - W-League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 34%, draw 25%, Melbourne City (K) 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
9 Nov 2024
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