RKC Waalwijk 1-4 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Nov 2025

RKC Waalwijk
1-4 HT 0-3
De Graafschap
📅09/11/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

RKC Waalwijk vs De Graafschap Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.89
Over 2.5
58%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.38
No
41%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
6.54
2-3 Goals
33%
2.14
4-5 Goals
28%
2.41
6+ Goals
14%
4.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.68
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.48
X/2
10%
7.65
X/X
10%
6.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.5
2/2
17%
4.46
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 8% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
68%
-9.2pp
41%
BTTS No
32%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v De Graafschap — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -15%
2.18/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.35
+7% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 75%
38.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
34.1 Crosses 19.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

RKC Waalwijk vs De Graafschap Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1W-2D-3L
AWAY De Graafschap
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 8
293 Passes 404
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 6
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.03.2018 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
02.09.2017 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
07.04.2017 De Graafschap De Graafschap 4-0 HT 3-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
25.11.2016 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
09.02.2015 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-5 HT 0-3 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
25.08.2014 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2

RKC Waalwijk 1-4 De Graafschap — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-4
AWAY De Graafschap
2.34 xG 2.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
24 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 8
11 Corners 5
470 Passes 250
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
44 Box Touches 35
35 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap ran out comfortable winners over RKC Waalwijk 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was RKC Waalwijk at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 63% of the ball to De Graafschap's 37%, shots finished 24-16, expected goals 2.34 to 2.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.00 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?

RKC Waalwijk 1-4 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 45%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 33%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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