Real Madrid 5-3 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Super Cup, 10 Jan 2024

Real Madrid
5-3 HT 2-2
Atletico Madrid
📅10/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Super Cup – 2023/2024

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.38
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 31% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.89
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
4%
13.0
X/1
18%
4.67
X/2
11%
6.78
X/X
15%
4.63
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
11%
4.88
2/X
10%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.13/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/2.13
-53% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / –
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 73%
37.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
27.8 Crosses 17.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 5.0

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
591 Passes 389
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
26.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
18.09.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
08.05.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
12.12.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Real Madrid 5-3 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
5-3
AWAY Atletico Madrid
3.10 xG 0.63
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 4
829 Passes 622
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
55 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid saw off Atletico Madrid 5-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Real Madrid had 56% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 44%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 3.10 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Real Madrid and 1.17 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?

Real Madrid 5-3 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Super Cup on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 41%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 30%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →