Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 10 Jan 2025

📅10/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.13
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
14%
5.71
X/2
13%
5.38
X/X
16%
4.04
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
14%
3.79
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
+0.4pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -26%
1.21/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.43
-23% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
288 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 76%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
25.1 Crosses 15.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.78 xG 0.94
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 Passes 306
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
11.12.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
11.03.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
10.11.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.02.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
01.11.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2-1
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.65 xG 2.26
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
358 Passes 332
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
7 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano edged past Celta Vigo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 32% / 33% — and on the day Rayo Vallecano made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 50% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 50%, shots finished 8-23, expected goals 0.65 to 2.26 — the balance of chances actually favoured Celta Vigo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.83 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 35%, draw 32%, Celta Vigo 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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