Chapecoense 2-3 Joinville — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Catarinense 1, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.87
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
36%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
22%
+12.7pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.8pp
36%
Away Win
54%
-18.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Joinville EU Bookmakers 58%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+72% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
264 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Joinville
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
218 Passes 231
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2023 Joinville Joinville 1-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BRCAT1
10.02.2022 Joinville Joinville 2-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BRCAT1
04.04.2021 Joinville Joinville 0-3 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BRCAT1
11.09.2015 Joinville Joinville 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
04.06.2015 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-0 HT 2-0 Joinville Joinville BR1
05.10.2013 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 0-0 Joinville Joinville BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
2-3
AWAY Joinville
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Joinville
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Joinville nicked a narrow win over Chapecoense 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Joinville made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 51% of the ball to Joinville's 49%, shots finished 14-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chapecoense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chapecoense and 0.67 for Joinville.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Joinville?

Chapecoense 2-3 Joinville in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Joinville?

Before kick-off our model rated an Joinville win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 35%, draw 29%, Joinville 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Joinville) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Joinville) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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