Gremio 1-1 Sao Luiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Gaucho 1, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
39%
4-5
21%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
42%
+6.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
26%
Away Win
31%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Luiz The Market 34%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.38/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.25
+30% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Sao Luiz
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.25 xG 0.59
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
525 Passes 314
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2023 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRG1
19.02.2022 Gremio Gremio 4-0 HT 2-0 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz BRG1
01.04.2021 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 2-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BRG1
07.04.2019 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 2-0 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz BRG1
01.04.2019 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRG1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-1
AWAY Sao Luiz
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Sao Luiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio and Sao Luiz couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gremio at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Gremio had 60% of the ball to Sao Luiz's 40%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Gremio and 0.40 for Sao Luiz.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Sao Luiz?

Gremio 1-1 Sao Luiz in the Brazil - Gaucho 1 on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Sao Luiz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Gremio 49%, draw 25%, Sao Luiz 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gremio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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