Bristol City 1-0 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.75
Over
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.95
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
20%
3.95
6+
9%
17.95
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.95 — our 32% vs market 28.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.28
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
18%
4.9
X/2
13%
6.16
X/X
13%
4.29
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
12%
4.52
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.19/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.42
-13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +1%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
21.3 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Swansea City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.75
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
233 Passes 514
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-2 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
19.03.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
17.01.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-2 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City FAK
08.01.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 1-1 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City FAK
29.10.2022 Bristol City Bristol City 1-1 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
13.02.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 3-1 HT 0-1 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
1-0
AWAY Swansea City
0.50 xG 0.62
27% Ball Possession 73%
5 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 6
154 Passes 546
69% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City squeezed past Swansea City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Bristol City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bristol City had 27% of the ball to Swansea City's 73%, shots finished 5-8, expected goals 0.50 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bristol City and 1.50 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Swansea City?

Bristol City 1-0 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 40%, draw 28%, Swansea City 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bristol City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bristol City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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