Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

Arouca
0-3 HT 0-1
Sporting CP
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.91
Draw
25%
4.34
Away Pick
55%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.18
Over
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
4.31
2-3
35%
1.88
4-5
26%
2.98
6+
11%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.31 — our 28% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.15
1/2
5%
21.85
1/X
7%
19.1
X/1
9%
14.35
X/2
14%
3.6
X/X
11%
6.64
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
35%
1.71
2/X
7%
18.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Sporting CP win — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+6.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.2pp
55%
Away Win
66%
-11.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 70%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
0.80/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/0.80
-55% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
255 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 83%
12.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
14.6 Crosses 22.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Arouca vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 2.12
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
262 Passes 471
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 30
5 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
16.04.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
24.01.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP PORLC
29.10.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.03.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
02.10.2021 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-3
AWAY Sporting CP
0.54 xG 2.27
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 0
529 Passes 281
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP ran out comfortable winners over Arouca 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Arouca had 62% of the ball to Sporting CP's 38%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.54 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arouca and 1.50 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Sporting CP?

Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Arouca 20%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 55%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ BTTS No
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