10/03/2024
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-0
Mutondo Stars vs NAPSA Stars Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
46%
4-5
17%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
3%
2/X
10%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
45%
Home Win
53%
30%
Draw
23%
25%
Away Win
24%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mutondo Stars v NAPSA Stars — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Mutondo Stars
The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
NAPSA Stars
The Market 27%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
5
381 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
340 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Mutondo Stars vs NAPSA Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Mutondo Stars swept aside NAPSA Stars 3-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mutondo Stars as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Mutondo Stars vs NAPSA Stars?
Mutondo Stars 3-0 NAPSA Stars in the Zambiya - Super League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mutondo Stars vs NAPSA Stars?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mutondo Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mutondo Stars 45%, draw 30%, NAPSA Stars 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mutondo Stars), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Mutondo Stars)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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ZAM
More Zambiya - Super League
10 Mar 2024