Charleston Battery 3-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Apr 2024

Charleston Battery
3-2 HT 3-1
Louisville City
📅10/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Charleston Battery vs Louisville City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Charleston Battery v Louisville City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charleston Battery EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -13%
1.25/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.59
-14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
16.4 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Charleston Battery vs Louisville City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charleston Battery
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Louisville City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 1.37
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
236 Passes 323
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Charleston Battery Charleston Battery 2-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
10.08.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-1 HT 0-0 Charleston Battery Charleston Battery USLP
23.04.2023 Charleston Battery Charleston Battery 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
07.08.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 4-1 HT 1-1 Charleston Battery Charleston Battery USLP
24.04.2022 Charleston Battery Charleston Battery 1-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
18.08.2019 Charleston Battery Charleston Battery 1-2 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP

Charleston Battery 3-2 Louisville City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charleston Battery
3-2
AWAY Louisville City
3.40 xG 1.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
22 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
307 Passes 285
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Charleston Battery vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charleston Battery edged past Louisville City 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Charleston Battery as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Charleston Battery had 51% of the ball to Louisville City's 49%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 3.40 to 1.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Charleston Battery's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Charleston Battery and 1.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Charleston Battery vs Louisville City?

Charleston Battery 3-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 10/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charleston Battery vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charleston Battery win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Charleston Battery 43%, draw 28%, Louisville City 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charleston Battery) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Charleston Battery) ✗ Under 2.5
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