Deportivo Alaves 2-2 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 10 May 2024

Deportivo Alaves
2-2 HT 1-2
Girona
📅10/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Deportivo Alaves vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.42
1/2
5%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
10%
6.6
X/2
15%
5.06
X/X
9%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
31.0
2/2
20%
3.04
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 13% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.7pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.21/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.12
+9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / +77%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
20.8 Crosses 20.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Deportivo Alaves vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Girona
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.30 xG 1.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
291 Passes 380
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.12.2023 Girona Girona 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
18.05.2019 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
12.01.2019 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
05.12.2018 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İSPK
31.10.2018 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-2 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İSPK
19.04.2018 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1

Deportivo Alaves 2-2 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2-2
AWAY Girona
1.78 xG 1.88
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
247 Passes 520
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
28 Box Touches 28
25 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves and Girona couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 22% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 35% of the ball to Girona's 65%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.78 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.83 for Girona.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Girona?

Deportivo Alaves 2-2 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 38%, draw 22%, Girona 40%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Girona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Girona) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →