Burgos 1-2 Eldense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 10 May 2024

Burgos
1-2 HT 1-2
Eldense
📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Burgos vs Eldense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.77
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
7%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 31% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.38
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.1
X/1
20%
3.91
X/2
10%
8.66
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
8%
7.22
2/X
6%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.7pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burgos v Eldense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Eldense EU Bookmakers 25%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.28/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.36
+40% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.7 Crosses 18.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Burgos vs Eldense Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Eldense
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
318 Passes 252
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Eldense Eldense 2-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
22.12.2022 Eldense Eldense 1-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İSPK

Burgos 1-2 Eldense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
1-2
AWAY Eldense
1.36 xG 1.96
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
404 Passes 188
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 16
41 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Eldense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eldense squeezed past Burgos 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Burgos at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burgos had 64% of the ball to Eldense's 36%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.36 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Eldense led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Burgos and 1.50 for Eldense.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Eldense?

Burgos 1-2 Eldense in the Spain - 2nd Division on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Eldense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Burgos 51%, draw 27%, Eldense 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Burgos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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