Augsburg 0-1 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 May 2024

Augsburg
0-1 HT 0-0
Stuttgart
📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.89
Over 2.5
59%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.39
No
42%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.94
2-3 Goals
36%
2.18
4-5 Goals
30%
2.47
6+ Goals
12%
4.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.49
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
18.9
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
8%
9.13
X/2
15%
4.66
X/X
6%
6.79
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
24%
2.2
2/X
8%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.9 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.1pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.3pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-4.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
31%
+9.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
69%
-9.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.0pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -41%
1.17/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/1.24
-5% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -35%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 83%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.2
17.6 Crosses 21.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Augsburg vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.87
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
216 Passes 452
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-0 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
21.04.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
29.10.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
19.03.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-2 HT 1-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
31.10.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 4-1 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
07.05.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 0-1 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
0-1
AWAY Stuttgart
0.68 xG 1.91
23% Ball Possession 77%
9 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
163 Passes 695
72% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart nicked a narrow win over Augsburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Augsburg had 23% of the ball to Stuttgart's 77%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.68 to 1.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stuttgart's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Augsburg and 2.00 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Stuttgart?

Augsburg 0-1 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 31%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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