Paderborn 1-0 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
43%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.32
No
41%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.39
2-3 Goals
37%
2.48
4-5 Goals
28%
2.33
6+ Goals
18%
3.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.93
1/2
7%
17.6
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
7%
8.92
X/2
10%
5.04
X/X
11%
7.34
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
25%
2.26
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.2pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.6pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-8.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
24%
+13.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
76%
-13.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
72%
-12.9pp
41%
BTTS No
28%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -1%
1.47/2.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.44
+67% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -19%
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.4
13.5 Crosses 21.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hamburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.30 xG 1.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
291 Passes 351
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
05.05.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
30.10.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 2-3 HT 1-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
02.04.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 1-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
22.10.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
30.01.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 3-1 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-0
AWAY Hamburg
1.09 xG 0.48
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
321 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn nicked a narrow win over Hamburg 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paderborn had 43% of the ball to Hamburg's 57%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.09 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paderborn and 2.00 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Hamburg?

Paderborn 1-0 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 35%, draw 22%, Hamburg 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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