USM Alger 2-1 El Bayadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.83
6+ Goals
8%
16.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 33% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-13.4pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.4pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY El Bayadh EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.63/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.27
+2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
1W-2D-0L
AWAY El Bayadh
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
15.12.2023 El Bayadh El Bayadh 1-1 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
03.03.2023 El Bayadh El Bayadh 0-0 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
27.08.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 1-0 HT 1-0 El Bayadh El Bayadh CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
2-1
AWAY El Bayadh
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs El Bayadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger squeezed past El Bayadh 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had USM Alger as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, USM Alger had 55% of the ball to El Bayadh's 45%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, USM Alger had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for USM Alger and 0.33 for El Bayadh.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs El Bayadh?

USM Alger 2-1 El Bayadh in the Algeria - 1st Division on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs El Bayadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 50%, draw 28%, El Bayadh 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (USM Alger) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (USM Alger) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →