La Serena 4-2 Santiago Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Chile - Cup, 10 Jul 2025

📅10/07/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-6.7pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME La Serena EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Santiago Wanderers EU Bookmakers 29%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +58% / +58%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.55/1.53
+53% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +144% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
253 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 178 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME La Serena
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Santiago Wanderers
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.41 xG 1.18
54% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
293 Passes 225
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.07.2023 Santiago Wanderers Santiago Wanderers 2-1 HT 1-1 La Serena La Serena ŞİLİB
19.02.2023 La Serena La Serena 3-1 HT 1-1 Santiago Wanderers Santiago Wanderers ŞİLİB
05.12.2021 La Serena La Serena 0-0 HT 0-0 Santiago Wanderers Santiago Wanderers ŞİL
21.08.2021 Santiago Wanderers Santiago Wanderers 2-2 HT 2-1 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
18.01.2021 Santiago Wanderers Santiago Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
23.02.2020 La Serena La Serena 3-0 HT 2-0 Santiago Wanderers Santiago Wanderers ŞİL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME La Serena
4-2
AWAY Santiago Wanderers
1.74 xG 0.57
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
393 Passes 153
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

La Serena saw off Santiago Wanderers 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had La Serena as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, La Serena had 65% of the ball to Santiago Wanderers's 35%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.74 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, La Serena had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for La Serena and 0.83 for Santiago Wanderers.

What was the final score of La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers?

La Serena 4-2 Santiago Wanderers in the Chile - Cup on 10/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a La Serena win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split La Serena 41%, draw 31%, Santiago Wanderers 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (La Serena), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (La Serena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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