Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 Feb 2024

Aston Villa
1-2 HT 0-1
Manchester United
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.8
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
19%
5.13
X/2
7%
6.86
X/X
10%
5.64
2/1
6%
21.6
2/2
16%
4.2
2/X
7%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
45%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.1pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.70/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.97
+17% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.8 Crosses 13.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Manchester United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.85 xG 1.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
317 Passes 423
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.12.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-2 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
30.04.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
10.11.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 4-2 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNLK
06.11.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 2-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
23.07.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United HAZ
23.07.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 2-2 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa HAZ

Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-2
AWAY Manchester United
2.45 xG 1.79
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 17
10 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 8
427 Passes 312
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
47 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United nicked a narrow win over Aston Villa 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 56% of the ball to Manchester United's 44%, shots finished 23-17, expected goals 2.45 to 1.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aston Villa.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aston Villa and 2.17 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Manchester United?

Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 48%, draw 23%, Manchester United 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
11 Feb 2024
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