Western United (K) 3-2 Brisbane Roar (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United (K) EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar (K) EU Bookmakers 25%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +61% / +61%
1.89/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.21/1.67
+5% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +115% / +79%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
416 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
20.0 Crosses 11.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United (K)
3-2
AWAY Brisbane Roar (K)
2.70 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 2
282 Passes 366
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Western United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United (K) nicked a narrow win over Brisbane Roar (K) 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Western United (K) as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Western United (K) had 46% of the ball to Brisbane Roar (K)'s 54%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.70 to 1.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Western United (K)'s control.

What was the final score of Western United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K)?

Western United (K) 3-2 Brisbane Roar (K) in the Australia - W-League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Western United (K) 50%, draw 21%, Brisbane Roar (K) 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Western United (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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