Cruzeiro Arapiraca 0-1 Penedense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Alagoano, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
30%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
61%
-18.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
30%
Away Win
16%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro Arapiraca EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Penedense EU Bookmakers 19%
-69% / -69% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-42% / -74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
439 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0-1
AWAY Penedense
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs Penedense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penedense nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro Arapiraca at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cruzeiro Arapiraca had 56% of the ball to Penedense's 44%, shots finished 6-7.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs Penedense?

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 0-1 Penedense in the Brazil - Alagoano on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs Penedense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro Arapiraca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro Arapiraca 43%, draw 27%, Penedense 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cruzeiro Arapiraca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro Arapiraca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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