USM Alger 1-5 Paradou — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
5.3
6+ Goals
9%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
29%
-6.3pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.9pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Paradou EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.54/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.30
+14% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Paradou
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2023 Paradou Paradou 1-0 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
25.10.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 2-0 Paradou Paradou CZYR
25.01.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 2-1 Paradou Paradou CZYR
09.08.2021 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 1-0 Paradou Paradou CZYR
06.03.2021 Paradou Paradou 2-1 HT 1-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
07.03.2020 Paradou Paradou 1-1 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
1-5
AWAY Paradou
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs Paradou
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paradou ran out comfortable winners over USM Alger 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was USM Alger at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, USM Alger had 54% of the ball to Paradou's 46%, shots finished 7-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, USM Alger had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for USM Alger and 1.17 for Paradou.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs Paradou?

USM Alger 1-5 Paradou in the Algeria - 1st Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs Paradou?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 47%, draw 23%, Paradou 30%. The final score 1-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (USM Alger) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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