Democracia 2-0 Santa Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Guatemela - Premier League Apertura, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over Pick
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
39%
4-5
26%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Democracia The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Lucia The Market 40%
+48% / +48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / -78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Democracia vs Santa Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Democracia got the better of Santa Lucia 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Democracia found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Democracia vs Santa Lucia?

Democracia 2-0 Santa Lucia in the Guatemela - Premier League Apertura on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Democracia vs Santa Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Lucia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Democracia 36%, draw 27%, Santa Lucia 37%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Santa Lucia)
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