11/02/2024
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
1-2
Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
38%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
22%
Draw
20%
57%
Away Win
66%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Baghdad v Naft Al-Wasat — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Baghdad
EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY
Naft Al-Wasat
EU Bookmakers 70%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
45%
Ball Possession
55%
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
6
247 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
388 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Baghdad and Naft Al-Wasat couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
This one beat our numbers. Naft Al-Wasat carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat?
Baghdad 1-1 Naft Al-Wasat in the Iraq - Premier League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat?
Before kick-off our model rated an Naft Al-Wasat win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Baghdad 21%, draw 22%, Naft Al-Wasat 57%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Naft Al-Wasat), Over 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Naft Al-Wasat)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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11 Feb 2024