Gasogi United 2-3 Bugesera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ruanda - National Futbol League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.3
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
26%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
No Pick
70%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
48%
4-5
13%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
2%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
55%
Home Win
72%
-16.8pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
10%
+16.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gasogi United The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Bugesera The Market 14%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+34% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +79%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
430 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Gasogi United vs Bugesera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bugesera squeezed past Gasogi United 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Gasogi United at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (70%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Gasogi United vs Bugesera?

Gasogi United 2-3 Bugesera in the Ruanda - National Futbol League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gasogi United vs Bugesera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gasogi United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Gasogi United 55%, draw 19%, Bugesera 26%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gasogi United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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