Paris (K) 2-3 Real Madrid (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 11 Feb 2026

Paris (K)
2-3 HT 1-2
Real Madrid (K)
📅11/02/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2025/2026

Paris (K) vs Real Madrid (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
50%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.0
Over Pick
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.69
2-3
43%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.18
6+
12%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 ✗
15%
7.96
1/2
5%
22.25
1/X
7%
16.15
X/1
10%
10.1
X/2
8%
4.28
X/X
8%
5.52
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
37%
2.12
2/X
6%
14.5
Value flag · 1/1 at 7.96 — our 15% vs market 9.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+8.1pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paris (K) v Real Madrid (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paris (K) EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid (K) EU Bookmakers 60%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.26/4.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.43
+13% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -19%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
– Crosses 27.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Paris (K) vs Real Madrid (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paris (K)
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Real Madrid (K)
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.48 xG 1.93
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
271 Passes 397
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2025 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 1-1 HT 0-1 Paris (K) Paris (K) ŞMP-K
20.12.2023 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Paris (K) Paris (K) ŞMP-K
14.12.2023 Paris (K) Paris (K) 2-1 HT 2-0 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K

Paris (K) 2-3 Real Madrid (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paris (K)
2-3
AWAY Real Madrid (K)
0.61 xG 2.13
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
237 Passes 215
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paris (K) vs Real Madrid (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid (K) squeezed past Paris (K) 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid (K) as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Paris (K) had 51% of the ball to Real Madrid (K)'s 49%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.61 to 2.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Madrid (K)'s control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Paris (K) had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Paris (K) and 0.67 for Real Madrid (K).

What was the final score of Paris (K) vs Real Madrid (K)?

Paris (K) 2-3 Real Madrid (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paris (K) vs Real Madrid (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Paris (K) 29%, draw 21%, Real Madrid (K) 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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