Chelsea 3-2 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 Mar 2024

Chelsea
3-2 HT 1-1
Newcastle United
📅11/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Chelsea vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.82
2-3 Goals
36%
2.05
4-5 Goals
28%
2.6
6+ Goals
16%
5.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.34
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.66
X/2
8%
8.39
X/X
11%
6.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.0
2/2
14%
5.24
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-0.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.9pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +26%
1.58/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.55
-32% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.4 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Chelsea vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.26 xG 1.05
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
540 Passes 247
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
25.11.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
12.11.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
13.03.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
30.10.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-3 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP

Chelsea 3-2 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
3-2
AWAY Newcastle United
1.57 xG 0.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 4
342 Passes 424
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea squeezed past Newcastle United 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 45% of the ball to Newcastle United's 55%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.57 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chelsea and 1.17 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Newcastle United?

Chelsea 3-2 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 50%, draw 22%, Newcastle United 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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