Punjab FC 3-3 FC Goa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.0
Over Pick
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.75
2-3
39%
1.82
4-5
26%
3.25
6+
9%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Punjab FC EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Goa EU Bookmakers 56%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
0.94/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.25
-9% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
15.9 Crosses 20.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Punjab FC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Goa
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.27 xG 1.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
338 Passes 360
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2023 FC Goa FC Goa 1-0 HT 1-0 Punjab FC Punjab FC HİNSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Punjab FC
3-3
AWAY FC Goa
1.44 xG 2.17
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 9
255 Passes 446
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Punjab FC vs FC Goa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Punjab FC and FC Goa shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FC Goa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Punjab FC had 39% of the ball to FC Goa's 61%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 1.44 to 2.17.

What was the final score of Punjab FC vs FC Goa?

Punjab FC 3-3 FC Goa in the India - Super League on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Punjab FC vs FC Goa?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Goa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Punjab FC 29%, draw 23%, FC Goa 48%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Goa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Goa) ✓ Over 2.5
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