Manisa FK 3-2 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 11 Mar 2024

Manisa FK
3-2 HT 2-0
Ümraniyespor
📅11/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Manisa FK vs Ümraniyespor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.04
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.85
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.88
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
15%
4.54
X/2
11%
6.96
X/X
12%
4.38
2/1
13%
26.5
2/2
11%
5.25
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manisa FK v Ümraniyespor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manisa FK EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 31%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.40/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.61
-15% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.6 Crosses 15.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Manisa FK vs Ümraniyespor Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manisa FK
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.51 xG 1.71
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
348 Passes 367
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 3-2 HT 1-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
21.02.2022 Manisa FK Manisa FK 2-1 HT 1-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
25.09.2021 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-0 HT 1-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L

Manisa FK 3-2 Ümraniyespor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manisa FK
3-2
AWAY Ümraniyespor
0.94 xG 1.49
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
258 Passes 472
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 39
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Manisa FK vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manisa FK nicked a narrow win over Ümraniyespor 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manisa FK as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Manisa FK had 38% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 62%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.94 to 1.49 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ümraniyespor.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Manisa FK and 1.67 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Manisa FK vs Ümraniyespor?

Manisa FK 3-2 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manisa FK vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manisa FK win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Manisa FK 44%, draw 26%, Ümraniyespor 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manisa FK) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manisa FK) ✗ Under 2.5
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