Defensor Sporting 3-3 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 11 Mar 2024

Defensor Sporting
3-3 HT 1-1
Nacional de Football
📅11/03/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Uruguay - Premier League – 2024

Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Defensor Sporting v Nacional de Football — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.29/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.96
+2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
271 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.2

Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Nacional de Football
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.12.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
08.05.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
09.10.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
15.05.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
08.03.2021 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
11.09.2020 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU

Defensor Sporting 3-3 Nacional de Football — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
3-3
AWAY Nacional de Football
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 8
10 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting and Nacional de Football couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Defensor Sporting at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 49% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 51%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.50 for Nacional de Football.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football?

Defensor Sporting 3-3 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 43%, draw 28%, Nacional de Football 29%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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