Deportivo La Guaira 1-2 Metropolitanos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Metropolitanos EU Bookmakers 36%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.54/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.38
+11% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 70%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.1 Crosses 18.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Metropolitanos
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.08 xG 0.98
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
322 Passes 334
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.09.2023 Metropolitanos Metropolitanos 2-2 HT 1-1 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
18.02.2023 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 2-0 HT 0-0 Metropolitanos Metropolitanos VEN
19.09.2022 Metropolitanos Metropolitanos 1-2 HT 1-1 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
25.02.2022 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 HT 1-0 Metropolitanos Metropolitanos VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
1-2
AWAY Metropolitanos
1.66 xG 0.29
72% Ball Possession 28%
16 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 2
392 Passes 131
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 6
39 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metropolitanos edged past Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo La Guaira at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo La Guaira had 72% of the ball to Metropolitanos's 28%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.66 to 0.29 — on chances, Deportivo La Guaira could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Deportivo La Guaira had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.75 for Metropolitanos.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos?

Deportivo La Guaira 1-2 Metropolitanos in the Venezuela - Premier League on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Guaira 45%, draw 26%, Metropolitanos 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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