Samgurali 3-1 Gareji — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.82
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
51%
-8.4pp
33%
Draw
26%
+7.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samgurali EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Gareji EU Bookmakers 27%
-10% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samgurali
3-1
AWAY Gareji
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Samgurali vs Gareji
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samgurali got the better of Gareji 3-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Samgurali as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Samgurali had 43% of the ball to Gareji's 57%, shots finished 6-8.

What was the final score of Samgurali vs Gareji?

Samgurali 3-1 Gareji in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samgurali vs Gareji?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samgurali win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Samgurali 42%, draw 33%, Gareji 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samgurali) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samgurali) ✗ Under 2.5
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