KTP Kotka 2-2 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.1
Over 2.5
61%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.05
1/2
7%
22.9
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
12%
7.4
X/2
12%
5.08
X/X
8%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
31.5
2/2
26%
2.81
2/X
8%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.5 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.2pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
45%
Away Win
45%
+0.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
44%
-5.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
56%
+5.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 49%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +15%
1.36/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.76
-29% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
15.0 Crosses 19.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY VPS
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 1.07
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
228 Passes 246
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
03.06.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
04.11.2020 VPS VPS 2-4 HT 2-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
15.08.2020 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN2
18.10.2015 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
03.08.2015 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
2-2
AWAY VPS
1.28 xG 1.76
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
256 Passes 348
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 42
12 Crosses 39
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka and VPS couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 44% of the ball to VPS's 56%, shots finished 14-23, expected goals 1.28 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for KTP Kotka and 0.83 for VPS.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs VPS?

KTP Kotka 2-2 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 32%, draw 22%, VPS 45%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (VPS) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
11 Apr 2025
20:00 SJK Seinajoki vs HJK Helsinki Analysis →