Newtown 0-5 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 11 May 2024

Newtown
0-5 HT 0-3
Penybont
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒14:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2023/2024

Newtown vs Penybont Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.68
Over 2.5
34%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.85
No
62%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.21
6+ Goals
7%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 37% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
19%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
50%
-11.6pp
62%
BTTS No
50%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newtown v Penybont — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
1.72/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.19
+22% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Newtown vs Penybont Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Penybont
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
19.11.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
12.08.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
22.04.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-1 HT 0-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
18.03.2023 Newtown Newtown 0-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
28.01.2023 Penybont Penybont 3-0 HT 3-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
17.09.2022 Newtown Newtown 2-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL

Newtown 0-5 Penybont — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newtown
0-5
AWAY Penybont
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont swept aside Newtown 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 32%) promised a tight game; Penybont found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (66%) missed.

On the day, Newtown had 52% of the ball to Penybont's 48%, shots finished 6-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newtown and 2.17 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Penybont?

Newtown 0-5 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Newtown 40%, draw 27%, Penybont 32%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Newtown), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newtown) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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