Lee Man 1-2 Sham Shui Po — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - FA Cup, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.11
Draw
18%
8.78
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
Over 2.5
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
85%
-17.6pp
18%
Draw
8%
+9.6pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lee Man EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Sham Shui Po EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +138%
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
442 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lee Man
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Sham Shui Po
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Lee Man Lee Man 3-1 HT 2-0 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK1
23.04.2023 Lee Man Lee Man 4-0 HT 0-0 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK1
29.01.2023 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po 0-4 HT 0-2 Lee Man Lee Man HK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lee Man
1-2
AWAY Sham Shui Po
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lee Man vs Sham Shui Po
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sham Shui Po edged past Lee Man 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lee Man at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Lee Man had 67% of the ball to Sham Shui Po's 33%, shots finished 17-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lee Man had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Lee Man and 0.33 for Sham Shui Po.

What was the final score of Lee Man vs Sham Shui Po?

Lee Man 1-2 Sham Shui Po in the Hong Kong - FA Cup on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lee Man vs Sham Shui Po?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lee Man win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Lee Man 68%, draw 18%, Sham Shui Po 14%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lee Man) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lee Man) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →