Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Polokwane City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Cup, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.29
Draw
28%
4.81
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.03
Over 2.5
41%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.27
No
64%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.81
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.22
6+ Goals
8%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 34% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
73%
-15.8pp
28%
Draw
18%
+10.2pp
15%
Away Win
9%
+5.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
45%
+13.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
55%
-13.3pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.2pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Polokwane City EU Bookmakers 12%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.39/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/3.12
+7% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -29%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
451 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 70%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
18.2 Crosses 11.0
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Polokwane City
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.05 xG 0.46
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
512 Passes 220
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-0 HT 0-0 Polokwane City Polokwane City GAFPSL
30.08.2023 Polokwane City Polokwane City 0-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
10.03.2021 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 4-0 Polokwane City Polokwane City GAF8K
02.09.2020 Polokwane City Polokwane City 0-3 HT 0-2 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
21.12.2019 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 Polokwane City Polokwane City GAFPSL
11.03.2015 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 5-0 HT 3-0 Polokwane City Polokwane City GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-0
AWAY Polokwane City
1.83 xG 0.68
64% Ball Possession 36%
24 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 5
582 Passes 288
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Polokwane City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns squeezed past Polokwane City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 64% of the ball to Polokwane City's 36%, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 1.83 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.00 for Polokwane City.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Polokwane City?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Polokwane City in the South Afrika - Cup on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Polokwane City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 57%, draw 28%, Polokwane City 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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