Pogon Siedlce 1-2 Nieciecza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.69
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
40%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.34
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 26% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
24%
+7.6pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-12.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.20/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.63
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +64%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
271 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Nieciecza
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
30.05.2015 Nieciecza Nieciecza 2-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
09.11.2014 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-4 HT 1-1 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1-2
AWAY Nieciecza
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Nieciecza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nieciecza squeezed past Pogon Siedlce 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Nieciecza made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 46% of the ball to Nieciecza's 54%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Nieciecza led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 3.00 for Nieciecza.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Nieciecza?

Pogon Siedlce 1-2 Nieciecza in the Poland - 1st Division on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Nieciecza?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nieciecza win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 31%, draw 29%, Nieciecza 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nieciecza), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nieciecza) ✓ BTTS Yes
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