11/10/2025
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
Homeboyz vs Nairobi United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
Over 2.5
37%
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
32%
Draw
30%
26%
Away Win
21%
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
54%
BTTS No
60%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Homeboyz v Nairobi United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Homeboyz
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Nairobi United
EU Bookmakers 24%
+21% /
+21%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+62% /
+62%
1.55/0.28
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/0.00
+33%
/
+150%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+31%
/
–
55%
Ball Possession
45%
13
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
4
365 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
246 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
3.0
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Homeboyz vs Nairobi United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Nairobi United saw off Homeboyz 2-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Homeboyz at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Homeboyz vs Nairobi United?
Homeboyz 0-2 Nairobi United in the Kenya - Premier League on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Homeboyz vs Nairobi United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Homeboyz win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Homeboyz 42%, draw 32%, Nairobi United 26%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Homeboyz) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Homeboyz)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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