Sevilla 2-3 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 12 Jan 2024

📅12/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.85
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.48 — our 36% vs market 34.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.8
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
12%
4.19
X/2
13%
7.2
X/X
15%
3.9
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
10%
6.0
2/X
5%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.37/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.45
-15% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
343 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
31.3 Crosses 17.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.34
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
455 Passes 201
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 4-3 HT 2-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
17.01.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İSPK
04.03.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
20.11.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
23.05.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
19.01.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 1-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
2-3
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
2.20 xG 1.99
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
483 Passes 177
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 25
29 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves nicked a narrow win over Sevilla 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Deportivo Alaves made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sevilla had 68% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 32%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 2.20 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sevilla and 1.17 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Deportivo Alaves?

Sevilla 2-3 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 39%, draw 30%, Deportivo Alaves 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →